Risk Outlook 2026 Flags Geopolitical Tensions And Cybercrime As Major Threats To International Travel

Geopolitical tensions, cybercrime and trade disruptions are expected to be among the most significant problems for international travel next year, according to International SOS’s Risk Outlook 2026.

The report states that emerging threats are increasingly overlapping, arriving in waves that are stretching organisations’ resilience and capacity to respond.

The top issues cited as disruptors in the survey include geopolitical tensions (47%), cyber-crime (27%), economic instability and trade disruptions (26%), regulatory change and political uncertainty (24%) and extreme weather and natural catastrophes (21%).

International SOS found that the combination of risks was driving the need for more complex responses, including simultaneous security and health emergency response mechanisms. Almost half (49%) of risk specialists surveyed said that the interconnectedness and convergence of different risk events had increased in the past year.

“There used to be some crises that were purely security issues,” said International SOS Global Medical Director, Irene Lai.

“Medical teams weren’t necessarily required in those crisis management meetings. Now there is rarely an event where we do not need representation from both teams.”

Furthermore, it found that the increasingly stressful global environment threatened the safety, responsiveness, reliance and mental wellbeing of travellers.

Security ratings

Several countries’ security risk ratings have increased due to geopolitical tensions, including Iran (medium to high), Myanmar (high to extreme) and Niger (medium to high).

Mongolia has seen a reduction in its security risk rating, from medium to low, due to stability in the capital and improvements in natural disaster response and road safety.

The continuing wars in Ukraine, Israel-Palestine, Sudan, Yemen and territorial conflict between Cambodia and Thailand were all flagged as contributors to higher security risk ratings.

The medical risk rating for India has changed from variable to medium, due to the standard of care available in major cities.

Storms ahead

In 2025, wildfires were recorded in Greece, the US West Coast, South Korea, Spain, Portugal and Turkey. Additionally, Argentina, Pakistan, Colombia, Venezuela, Canada, Australia and many US states experienced severe flooding.

The report noted that, in the immediate period before, during and after an extreme weather event, there were likely to be significant life safety risks. These are often compounded by widespread disruption, inaccessible support structures such as communications, transport, supplies emergency services and challenges to local authorities to manage and mitigate the risks.