Politically speaking, it seemed that the general tone of the year had been set by calamities such as the assassination of former Pakistan Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto, the violent unrest that followed Kenya’s dubious elections as well as the pessimism surrounding the forthcoming Zimbabwe elections.Yet when speaking to a number of South Africa’s key political commentators, it seems that our country’s prospects for 2008, though not without challenges, are indicative of a country that is progressing steadily.The big issue is the divisive tensions within the ANC. The run up to the ANC Polokwane conference in December last year revealed unambiguously that the ANC has changed since its unified days of the past and that there are in fact considerable tensions that lurk beneath.“The ANC does seem to have crystallised into two camps, the Mbeki camp and the Zuma camp,” says Rhodes University Professor Steven Friedman. “This year will be marked by a fair amount of jostling for power and influence within the ANC.”Professor Sheila Meintjies, Head of the Politics Department at Wits University, shares Friedman’s sentiments. Over the course of 2008, says Meintjies, South Africa may well witness “a crisis of governance within the ANC but not within the country. The country will muddle along with Mbeki at the helm.”Professor Sipho Seepe, president of the SA Institute of Race Relations warns against looking at the ANC from this perspective as it suggests that things could swing one way or the other thereby undermining the reality of the present situation. “There are no two camps within the ANC. There is one centre which is the majority, as determined by the votes at the National Conference in December.”Seepe believes that 2008 will be shaped by the very clear message that was sent by the ANC members in Polokwane. “We are faced with leadership in government where the party members have clearly declared a vote of no confidence. If this had happened in a normal situation, the head of government should step down but ‘African thought’ is such that leaders tend to believe that power is a right, not a privilege.”“Mbeki has failed to come to terms with his loss and has taken an antagonistic stand against his own party,” adds Seepe.The world will be watching as newly elected ANC President Jacob Zuma takes to the stand to face his corruption charges. The big question is whether or not Zuma will emerge from trial unscathed and ready to lead the ANC into next year’s elections. The outcome of Zuma’s trial will have significant implications for both the ANC and South Africa. Political analyst Dr Frederick van Zyl Slabbert believes that the Zuma camp will emerge quite comfortably from the trial. Should Zuma lose, he will be forced to step down and relinquish his position to his deputy Kgalema Motlanthe. Motlanthe will then run as ANC’s presidential candidate for the 2009 elections.Just days after his election to the position of deputy president, Sunday Independent editor Jovial Ranthao referred to Motlanthe as “the leader in waiting”.During the ANC Conference in Polokwane “it was very clear that [Motlanthe] was in charge,” says Seepe. “He was the man of the moment.”Kgalema Motlanthe is widely respected within the ANC partly due to a decade spent on Robben Island, his work in exile with the armed wing of the ANC and his leadership of National Union of Mineworkers. But Ranthao adds that his frankness and social democratic and liberal thoughts have won him great favour among almost all ANC cadres.Meintjies believes that Motlanthe’s role in the ANC this year will see him holding together “a curious mix of people with dubious pasts and uncertain futures.” The courts will be busy this year as two high profile political figures go on trial for corruption. Jacob Zuma and National Police Commissioner Jackie Selebi have stirred mass hysteria over the prevalence of corruption in South Africa.Van Zyl Slabbert is quick to remind South Africans how fortunate we are to have due process in our country, a reminder that no one is above the law. “This kind of due process is remarkable in SA, bearing in mind that it is absent in many other African and Latin American countries,” says Van Zyl Slabbert.“Societies at large struggle to avoid corruption” says Friedman. “We should rather be judged by whether we deal with it.” Meintjies believes that the corruption trials of Zuma and Selebi are a reflection of growing transparency and commitment to democracy.Seepe celebrates the ANC’s stance on ‘weeding out corruption’ as reflected in their application to reopen the arms deal case. “We can no longer have this selective approach to dealing with corruption. Reopening the arms deal case will expose everyone involved.” Prophets of doom have long foretold of the inevitable demise of South Africa, following the ‘Zimbabwean path’. The current crisis in Kenya has only helped to fuel such thoughts. Meintjies fears that the Kenya situation will “create concern that [South Africa’s] future is not free from temptation of non-democratic leaders.”Professor Van Zyl Slabbert believes that we will stay firm on our democratic path. “We are very fortunate in not having a politicised security system. There is no party or political power that owns the army or the police. Where these institutions are controlled by a political party, is where the problems generally start. People don’t realise that Kenya and Zimbabwe are different situations to ours.”Meintjies says that crisis in African countries is often a “test for post-colonial countries and what is being tested is our commitment to democratic norms, institutions, procedures and values.”Seepe doesn’t believe that the issues in Kenya or Zimbabwe are particularly relevant to South Africa and will not impact on us in 2008 except to “make us look good.”All things considered, the year ahead seems to be “extraordinarily fluid,” says Friedman, but of course there will be some potholes to navigate, namely Zuma and Selebi, adds Meintjies. Despite the challenges within the ANC, Van Zyl Slabbert says that government needs to stay focused on the social problems that still haunt our country such as poverty, unemployment and education.Seepe urges South Africans to look positively towards the newly elected ANC leadership, while Friedman urges business and key stakeholders to position themselves strategically in relation to South Africa’s changing political reality.Polokwane was a test of democracy for the ANC and the post-Polokwane period is a similar test for the nation. There is a tendency in our country’s media to ‘play the man and not the ball’ i.e. the players on the political stage and not our democracy. A number of issues and elements of our democracy are being tested, such as the separation of powers and the efficacy of state prosecuting and investigating authorities. So far we seem to be standing up to the test.While there are many differing opinions on members of government and of the ANC leadership, it is important to look at the bigger picture and appreciate the relative strength of our growing democracy.