Logistics in the festive season - Micro-surges, not one big peak

Shifting pay cycles, regional habits and gift-shopping rhythms reshape the country’s supply chains every festive season.

South Africa’s festive season is often framed as a single, extended and frantic retail peak. In reality, the data reveals a series of surges that begin in late October and intensify through November and December. These waves appear clearly in monthly volume shifts across regions and sectors, with retail volumes rising sharply from September before tapering into the new year.

Early movers: fashion, homeware and gifts

The first surge typically emerges in late October, driven by fashion, homeware and early gifting. For City Logistics – a leading privately owned logistics company in South Africa – this marks the start of a period of high agility. Gift shopping ramps up most quickly in the first three weeks of November and extends into early December, synchronising with promotional cycles and consumers spreading their spending.

“By October we’re already tracking line-level changes that show which categories are heating up,” says Ryan Gaines, City Logistics CEO. “Those signals give us enough lead time to adjust routing, capacity and shift patterns before the real pressure arrives.”

Black Friday and Cyber Monday: the compression spike

The next decisive surge arrives with Black Friday and Cyber Monday. These events generate intense, compressed demand over 24 to 72 hours, typically bridging late November and early December. The pressure is acute in the last mile, where labour, routing complexity and urban congestion converge. Without careful planning, these bottlenecks can cascade back through the network.

The December salary lift

Early salary payments between 13 and 15 December trigger another rapid spike in discretionary buying. This surge is reflected less in store traffic and more in the accelerated movement of goods between national distribution centres, cross-docks and retail outlets. Inland regions account for around two-thirds of annual volume, yet coastal nodes grow faster heading into December, driven by tourism-related activity.

The final wave: FMCG pressure before Christmas

While retail dominates the network throughout the build-up, FMCG follows a different rhythm. It does not surge early. Instead, replenishment intensity peaks in the narrow window of 24 to 26 December as households prepare for gatherings and travel. This requires tight top-up cycles, night-time trucking and precise store delivery timing.

Staying ahead of the waves

City Logistics manages these micro-surges through continuous operational adjustment: dynamic routing, forward-stocking in smaller towns, rapid cross-docking and flexible staffing. Each surge influences transport, warehousing, timing and capacity allocation across the network.

“Our teams focus on staying nimble rather than guessing the peak,” says Gaines. “The festive season is never the same twice, so our planning has to move in step with actual demand, not assumptions.”

South Africa’s festive supply chain is therefore shaped not by one crescendo, but by a choreography of overlapping surges – each uniquely altering the flow of goods across the country.