Wheat And Maize Weaken As FAO Reports 3.5% Drop In Cereal Price Index

The FAO Food Price Index averaged 130.3 points in June 2026, down 0.3% from May but 2.2% higher than a year earlier.

The decline was driven primarily by lower international cereal prices. The cereal price index fell 3.5% month on month as wheat and maize prices weakened on improved global supply prospects.

Global wheat prices declined 4.4% as harvests progressed rapidly and production prospects improved in the Black Sea region, while maize prices fell 6.2% on expectations of ample supplies from South America and weaker ethanol demand.

By contrast, international rice prices increased 3.2%, supported by stronger demand for Indica rice and weather-related production concerns in Asia.

"While the overall benchmark for international food commodity prices declined slightly in June, individual commodity markets continue to respond differently to evolving factors. In an increasingly uncertain global environment, transparent markets, timely information and predictable global trade remain essential to advance food security and strengthen the resilience of agrifood systems,” said Boubaker Ben-Belhassen, director of FAO's Markets and Trade Division.

Vegetable oils and meat prices rise

The vegetable oil price index increased 3.8% from May, supported by higher palm and rapeseed oil prices, while the meat price index rose 0.5% to a new record high.

International poultry prices strengthened following production adjustments, although pig and bovine meat prices declined.

Meanwhile, the dairy price index fell by 1.5%, reflecting lower prices for skim milk powder, whole milk powder, and butter, while the sugar price index dropped by 5.7% as lower ethanol prices in Brazil weighed on international markets.

Strong harvest outlook despite El Niño concerns

FAO's latest Cereal Supply and Demand Brief forecasts global cereal production of 2.983 billion tonnes in 2026, making it the second-largest harvest on record, although 1.9% below last year's record output.

Global wheat production is forecast to decline 4.3% to 806.5 million tonnes, partly because El Niño is expected to reduce production in Australia below the five-year average.

Although crop prospects remain broadly favourable, FAO said El Niño-related weather risks continue to pose uncertainty for global agricultural markets.

Separately, the organisation said 41 countries and territories, including 31 in Africa, require external food assistance because of conflict, insecurity and weather-related shocks.