Strong Grain And Produce Supplies Push South Africa Food Inflation Down To 2.8 Per Cent

While headline inflation accelerated from 3.1% in March to 4% year-on-year in April, food inflation eased to a 13-month low of 2.8%, supported largely by strong domestic grain, fruit and vegetable supplies.

The decline came despite sharp increases in fuel costs linked to conflict in the Middle East, which raised concerns around transport costs and potential food price pressures.

Cereal and fresh produce prices remain under pressure

Food inflation decelerated faster by 0.5 percentage points from the previous month and, for a third consecutive month, was underpinned by declines in the cereal products, fruits and nuts, and vegetables categories.

Cereal products inflation posted a second consecutive decline to -1.2% year-on-year as the bumper summer crop from last year, with an even larger crop currently in the lands readying for harvest, continues to weigh heavily on grain prices.

For example, average maize prices for April 2026 were still 37% and 30% below last year at R3,212/t and R3,334/t for the white and yellow subcategories, respectively.

There was respite so far in May 2026, with average white and yellow prices almost 30% and 19% respectively lower relative to the same period in 2025 at R3,322/t and R3,428/t.

We observed a similar trend with wheat, which is down 9% y/y at an average of R5,868/t.

Meat inflation eases after prolonged pressure

Meat decelerated faster by 2.2 percentage points and fell back below 10% at 9.4% year-on-year after weighing heavily on overall food inflation with double-digit growth in the past nine months to March 2026.

The combination of a demand downturn and the foot-and-mouth disease-induced export ban, which lifted domestic availabilities, hastened the recent deceleration in meat inflation.

Meanwhile, vegetable inflation continued to trend in negative territory for the seventh consecutive month at -1.3% year-on-year, which reflects the favourable production conditions despite pockets of disruptions in some areas due to inclement weather.

Similarly, the inflation of fruits and nuts remained in deflationary mode for the seventh consecutive month with a larger decrease of 6.6% year-on-year.

Fuel prices remain key inflation risk

A further erosion of disposable incomes on the back of higher fuel prices, as well as elevated overall inflation and a potential interest rate hike, dampens demand prospects.

This is likely to limit further upside for raw food commodity prices in the medium term amid a solid domestic summer crop and horticulture supply outlook.

However, the elevated fuel price outlook remains a significant risk to food inflation prospects as South Africa moves into the second half of 2026.