Landmark Study Reveals Academic Benefits Of Early Grade Repetition Across Six Provinces

The study sought to answer the questions: What happens after the thousands of learners who repeat Grade 1 and Grade 4 each year remain behind? And does repeating meaningfully improve their learning, or is its main benefit the pressure it places on learners to avoid being held back?

Titled The impact of early grade repetition on test scores: Evidence from a regression discontinuity design in South Africa, the study draws on data covering nearly all primary school learners in six provinces (Eastern Cape, Gauteng, KwaZulu-Natal, Limpopo, Mpumalanga, and North West).

By comparing learners who fall just below the promotion threshold with those who narrowly pass, the study applies a method known as regression discontinuity design. “Because we’re able to compare learners right at the promotion cutoff, this method gives us confidence that it’s repetition – not other background factors – that’s behind the differences we see,” says Clayton.

Large and sustained improvement

Learners repeating Grade 1 see their Home Language marks rise by 18.3 percentage points in Grade 2, 9.5 points in Grade 3, and 5.2 points in Grade 4, compared to those who had barely passed Grade 1 and thus reached these higher grades a year earlier. Although the immediate gains taper off over time, they remain statistically significant through Grade 4. Mathematics and First Additional Language scores show comparable trajectories.

Repeating Grade 4 also yields strong subsequent improvements: Home Language marks are expected to be 11.1 percentage points higher in Grade 5, 7.5 points higher in Grade 6 and 6.3 points higher in Grade 7 for learners just below the threshold.

While the initial boost from Grade 4 repetition is somewhat smaller than that of Grade 1, its persistence over the subsequent grades results in very similar overall benefits.

Substantial effects, but not without costs

“The evidence clearly shows that early grade repetition delivers the intended improvements in learning outcomes for learners near the promotion thresholds. This is encouraging, particularly in a system where an estimated 8–12% of the annual education budget is spent on repetition,” says Clayton.

“These are substantial effects – two to four times larger than the impacts of some of the most effective literacy interventions. But magnitude alone does not make repetition the best or most efficient option.

“A range of proven interventions – including targeted language support and structured pedagogy programmes – can deliver meaningful gains at lower cost and without requiring an additional year of schooling.

“The estimates in this study provide an important starting point for comparing the medium-term benefits of repetition with these alternatives and for identifying which approaches offer the best value for money.”

Differences between boys and girls

Girls appear to benefit more from Grade 1 repetition than boys, aligning with broader patterns of widening gender gaps between Grades 1 and 4.

“Repetition in Grade 4 seems to provide a more equal short-term boost for boys and girls,” Clayton notes. “But by Grades 6 and 7, the benefits fade more quickly for boys, returning to the pattern of an increasing girl advantage.

“Importantly, however, because more boys repeat than girls, repetition still helps narrow the average gender gap.”

Warning: High repetition rates are not necessarily desirable

Clayton cautions that these findings should not be interpreted as a call for stricter enforcement of grade repetition. “Class sizes in the early grades are already very large. Raising repetition rates without expanding teacher numbers could undermine the gains we see here. Repetition also carries a documented risk of leading to dropout in later grades – an issue that requires careful study in the South African context.”

Despite its measurable benefits, repetition must be considered alongside its fiscal implications.

“Previous work suggests that repetition, across all grades, may absorb 8-12% of the annual education budget, amounting to around R28-R40 billion in 2025. The benefits found in this study therefore need to be weighed against substantial system-level and individual costs, such as delayed labour-market entry.”

Repetition in higher grades: A different picture

Clayton also highlights the need to understand repetition in later grades. “While early repetition clearly benefits learners just below the threshold, we cannot assume the same for higher grades.

“Repetition in Grade 10, for example, affects roughly a quarter of the cohort, and international evidence suggests the returns may be far smaller – or even absent. It is crucial that we evaluate repetition differently across the schooling cycle.”

Conclusion

“Early grade repetition can make a real difference for learners who fall just below promotion thresholds, improving their outcomes in a meaningful and sustained way,” says Clayton.

“At the same time, it’s not the only option, and careful consideration of cost, efficiency, and alternative support strategies is essential to ensure that all learners have the best chance to succeed.”