Industry Leaders Warn Of Continued Volatility In South Africa’s Beef Sector Through 2026

"We have navigated a significantly volatile environment, and this is likely to continue deep into 2026/27. Having said that, we remain cautiously optimistic about the year ahead," Blignaut says.

Supply and demand dynamics lift prices

Blignaut notes that 2025 brought meaningful relief for cattle farmers, driven by a global and local shortage of beef. "For the first time in years, the undertone of positivity that we felt early in the year materialised. Meat prices lifted globally, and South Africa followed," he says.

Between February and May, slaughter cattle prices rose by around 15%, primarily due to scarcity rather than disease-related disruptions.

"Herds globally and locally were smaller, and slaughter numbers were down, which ultimately supported a healthier price environment that we haven’t seen in the last three to five years," Blignaut explains. This also eased financial pressure on the feedlot industry.

He adds that while consumers faced economic pressures such as inflation and unemployment, South African beef remained among the most affordable globally, maintaining high quality and export demand.

Blignaut estimates that slaughter numbers for 2025 could be 5–7% lower than 2024, while total meat production dropped 13–15% due to smaller animals. He cautions that sustaining positive prices in 2026 will require either increased local spending or expanded export markets.

FMD remains a key challenge

Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD), which has affected the industry since 2019, continues to disrupt production and pricing. In 2025, the disease spread widely and affected the feedlot sector, spiking cattle prices by an additional 10%.

"FMD makes it difficult to compete economically," says Blignaut. "It adds direct costs because you must put safeguards in place to protect your business, at a significant investment – and it distorts prices in a way that ultimately impacts the consumer. FMD has evolved into an economic disease. When an outbreak hits a region, that area loses economic value immediately."

The government confirmed a national vaccination programme in November 2025, with 950,000 animals vaccinated from government stock and priority-area vaccinations expected to start in February. Parameters for the feedlot industry’s participation will be announced by the end of January.

Blignaut stresses urgency: "Our industry cannot afford delays. As part of FMD Free with Vaccination, we will also need trade agreements that allow products from vaccinated herds to enter export markets. If we can speedily negotiate this with our export partners, then this will create an environment for our industry to stabilise and pick up momentum in 2026."

Export market implications

While some markets have indicated they would accept beef from vaccinated herds, government-to-government negotiations are still needed to formalise export health certificates.

"A solution could be to swiftly negotiate these export protocols while rolling out the planned national vaccination programme for FMD. A dedicated export negotiating team within the Department of Agriculture could help to achieve this and ensure smooth alignment between industry and export markets," Blignaut says.

South Africa exported over 38,000 tonnes of beef in 2024. Blignaut estimates exports in 2025 are down about 30%, largely due to FMD and lost access to China. Exporters are increasingly relying on the Middle East, with potential growth in Southeast Asia.

“There is light at the end of the tunnel, but we will have to act fast in implementing the vaccination rollout and negotiate properly with export partners if 2026 is to be a year of opportunity,” he concludes.