Airline Industry On Track For $41bn Profit In 2026 With Strong Demand And Higher Load Factors

Operating profit is expected to rise to $72.8 bn, pushing the net operating margin to 6.9%, while total revenues reach $1.053tn — a 4.5% increase over 2025. Load factors are projected to hit 83.8%, with passenger numbers climbing to 5.2 billion. Cargo volumes are forecast to grow 2.4% to 71.6 million tonnes.

Airlines build resilience amid global challenges

“Airlines are expected to generate a 3.9% net margin and a $41bn profit in 2026. That’s extremely welcome news considering the headwinds that the industry faces—rising costs from bottlenecks in the aerospace supply chain, geopolitical conflict, sluggish global trade, and growing regulatory burdens among them.

"Airlines have successfully built shock-absorbing resilience into their businesses that is delivering stable profitability,” says Willie Walsh, Iata's director general.

Despite these gains, Walsh highlighted the wider industry challenge: “Industry-level margins are still a pittance considering the value that airlines create by connecting people and economies…Imagine the additional power that airlines could bring to economies if we could re-balance value chain profitability, reduce regulatory and tax burdens, and alleviate infrastructure inefficiencies.”

Air cargo defies predictions

Air cargo has remained a standout performer. "The resilience in air cargo has been particularly impressive… Notably, air cargo enabled front-loading to deliver products ahead of tariff deadlines, and it flexibly accommodated demand surges as tariffed goods normally destined for the US found new markets," Walsh says.

Revenue and cost drivers for 2026

Passenger ticket revenues are projected at $751bn, with ancillary revenues at $145 billion, now 14% of total revenue. Cargo revenue is expected to reach $158bn.

Fuel costs are forecast to ease slightly to $252bn, while non-fuel costs rise to $729bn due to labour, maintenance, and leasing pressures. Airlines face continued regulatory, infrastructure, and geopolitical challenges that could constrain profitability.

Regional snapshots

• Africa: Thin margins due to high costs, visa restrictions, and older fleets. Net profit per passenger: $1.30.• Asia-Pacific: Strong growth led by China and India, load factors projected at 84.4%. Net profit per passenger: $3.20.• Europe: Highest absolute profits, low-cost carriers outperform full-service airlines, load factors stable at 83.8%. Net profit per passenger: $10.90.• Middle East: Strongest margin at 9.3%, hub carriers driving long-haul demand. Net profit per passenger: $28.60.• North America: Stable margins at 3.4%, despite US market challenges. Net profit per passenger: $9.80.• Latin America: Rebound expected, though currency volatility remains a concern. Net profit per passenger: $5.70.

Passengers remain confident in air travel

IATA polling across 14 countries revealed 97% satisfaction with recent travel, with 88% agreeing that air travel positively impacts society, and 83% caring about the industry’s success. The survey also highlighted strong support for the industry’s net-zero CO2 goal by 2050.