South African Mining Sector Records Surprise Production Decline After Months Of Stability

According to the Minerals Council South Africa (MCSA), real economic growth in key export markets such as China and India will help sustain demand for South Africa’s minerals and metals exports.

China grew by 5% in 2025, while India is expected to grow by 7.5%; growth is forecast for 2026, although slightly lower than in 2025.

The US and Europe are also projected to record positive growth rates in both 2025 and 2026.

Mineral drop

The decline was driven primarily by steep drops in coal, iron ore, gold, and platinum group metals (PGMs), marking an unexpected downturn in the sector.

The contributors were:

• Platinum group metals (PGMs): -2.8% (contributing -0.8 percentage points)
• Coal: -7.9% (contributing -2.1 percentage points)
• Iron ore: -7.9% (contributing -1.1 percentage points)
• Gold: -6.0% (contributing -0.5 percentage points)

Together, these four commodities represent 80.3% of the sector’s total production.

Month-on-month (m-o-m) seasonally adjusted production performance for November 2025 shows that across the five largest mining industries, four commodities contracted:

• PGMs: -4.8%
• Coal: -1.9%
• Iron ore: -15.7%
• Gold: -10.3%

The only exception was manganese, which grew by 5.0%.

Importantly, the November 2025 decline in total mining production was not the result of a broad collapse in commodity demand but rather stemmed from logistical constraints (especially for coal and iron ore) and sector-specific structural weaknesses (e.g., gold).

For policymakers, the data underscores the urgency of fixing transport infrastructure for bulk commodities.

Positive contributors to y-o-y (unadjusted) performance included:

• Manganese: +17.0% (contributing +1.1 percentage points)
• Diamonds: +27.9% (contributing +0.4 percentage points)
• Copper: +8.2% (contributing +0.1 percentage points)

Earnings

Year-to-date (January–November 2025), mineral sales were R28bn higher than during the same period in 2024, totalling R767bn compared with R739bn a year earlier.

Earnings rose for:

• PGMs: +R25.8 bn
• Gold: +R19.3bn
• Chromium ore: +R246m

Earnings declined for:

• Coal: -R4.2bn
• Iron ore: -R7.6bn
• Manganese: -R1.5bn

Price performance in November (y-o-y) showed strong growth in precious metals:

• Gold: +54.0% ($4,085/oz)
• Platinum: +62.4% ($1,564/oz)
• Palladium: +40.2% ($1,415/oz)
• Rhodium: +73.1% ($8,008/oz).

In contrast, coal prices fell by 23.3% to $85.5/t, while iron ore rose modestly by 2.2% to $106.2/t.