Retail Property Sector Surges As Green Indicators Show Rising Trading Densities Across South Africa

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“With the tracked universe being awash with green indicators, trading densities and rentals grew nationally across all shopping centre formats, and across the three key provinces, on a year-on-year basis,” says Belinda Clur, managing director of Clur International.

“The market was further supported by a continued trend of controlled market risk, signalled by an ongoing stable and low rent to sales ratio.

“This strengthening highlights a golden opportunity emerging at the confluence of evolving consumer culture shifts. Strategically, the fusion of meaningful experience, visual appeal, well-being and connection holds the key.

"With some of the top shopping centres globally, a hard to match creativity, pioneering spirit and entrepreneurial flair, South African retail property is ideally placed to leverage this consumer position.”

Trading densities soar

The Q3 ‘25 national Clur Index for All Centres closed with annualised trading density y/y% growth of 5.5%, out-performing September’s CPI by 2.1%. Highest y/y% growth was shown by community and smaller centres at 6.6%, followed by regional centres at 6.1%. Regional centres showed the highest expansion in growth versus December 2024 of 3.5%, followed by community and smaller centres at 2.8%.

The Q3 ‘25 national Clur Index for All Centres closed at an annualised trading density of R42,290/m². Highest trading densities were again shown by the two size extremes of super-regional centres, at R51,737/m², and community and smaller centres at R47,942/m².

The Western Cape was the top performer of the three key provinces, with y/y% annualised trading density growth of 6.2%, out-performing September’s CPI by 2.8%. Gauteng had the second highest y/y growth rate of 5.7%. KwaZulu Natal showed positive y/y growth of 3.8%, showing the highest growth expansion of 3.1% relative to December 2024.

The Q3 ‘25 national Clur Index for Base Rent closed at R240.22/m², with y/y% growth of 4.6%, outperforming September’s CPI by 1.2%. Highest base rentals were shown by super-regional and regional shopping centres at R325.71/m² and R234.93/m² respectively. Top y/y growth in base rentals was shown by super regional centres at 5.9%, and regionals at 5.1%, outperforming CPI by 2.5% and 1.7% respectively.

The national Clur Index for the annualised base rent to sales ratio came in at 6.6% in September, showing ongoing stability. Super-regional centres showed the highest rent to sales ratio of 7.2%, with regionals following at 6.9%. and community and smaller centres at the lowest level of 4.8%.

Provincially, Gauteng had the highest rent to sales ratio of 6.8%, followed by KZN at 6.5% and the Western Cape at 6.2%. The rule of thumb being, that the lower the ratio, the lower the risk.

Experiences over goods

Clur says the strengthening of physical retail space indicates a trend collision between the future and the past.

“As we move into increasingly more hi-tech times, so there is a push back and a return to traditional values. Along with this, we are in a loneliness pandemic, with a global increase in the number of single-person dwellings, ongoing flexi-working and the onset of a feared solo aging trend.

This, in tandem with growing screen fatigue, is leading to a strong desire to experience life and connect with others. Feelings are back in fashion, with emotional availability now trendy, and people are eager to interact with the world on a multi-layered basis.

Clur says this has most favourable implications for shopping centres, which provide the perfect physical playground for this fusion of trends.

“To take advantage of this, the sector should capitalise on the growing experience culture, with consumers showing a preference for memorable and meaningful experiences over tangible items."

Clur feels there is a general trend of people wanting to collect memories rather than goods, to decorate their lives and have interesting stories to tell.

“We live in an increasingly visually stimulated world, with sensitivity to nostalgia. Design and presentation, across the board, is a critical differentiator and competitive edge, with creativity, sustainability and strong local influence, along with internationalisation being welcomed.

“Well-being is a mega-focus area and has become a strong cultural consumer-status symbol. There is an ongoing, seemingly unstoppable revolution around personal, lifestyle, community, business and global wellness, as well as zen and joy-seeking.

"Emotional anchoring, grounding and digital detox are key related themes. Further, social-impact retail is a critical green lung in community wellness strategy.

“Shopping centres are increasingly becoming escape resorts and creative canvasses as well as key points of community trust.”

Beyond physical retail

Clur says the definition of a shopping-centre anchor is changing.

“It is no longer about one or two key tenants, but has broadened into a multilayered strategic attractive blend. The anchor is now the overarching experience you offer consumers that draws community to your centre with ease, including surrounding infrastructure such as taxi ranks.

"This has moved beyond the practical need for goods and services to also encompass an emotional need for connection, happiness, entertainment, memories and humanity. Emotional resonance paired with physical presence is key.

"All of these cultural shifts and supporting themes require careful consideration in the successful planning and development of retail and other real estate for the future."