Global Trade Fears Keep South Africa's Interest Rates On Hold
Written by: BizCommunity Editor Save to Instapaper
Source: Lesetja Kganyago - Facebook.
This decision comes amid uncertainties surrounding global trade and national budget issues.
"Given the uncertain global situation, the MPC spent time during this meeting exploring different external scenarios. For one, we considered a slowdown in the United States, with a weaker dollar and higher commodity prices, especially for gold. This implied some modest benefits for the South African economy, given better terms of trade and a stronger rand. Both inflation and the policy rate were therefore a little lower, relative to the baseline forecast," said the South African Reserve Bank governor, Lesetja Kganyago.
"We also explored scenarios built around changes in South Africa’s access to US markets. If South Africa were to lose AGOA benefits, we see some weakening of exports and slightly lower growth. If that were compounded with tariffs on South African exports, the effects would be larger.
"The most severe scenario we considered added a sentiment shock, with a weaker rand, higher domestic inflation and therefore a tighter policy stance. In this case, growth would be lower by 0.7 percentage points, with the exchange rate depreciation offsetting some of the tariff effects on exports."
Economists had mixed expectations leading up to the announcement, with many market watchers having expected a potential 25 basis point rate cut amid stabilised domestic inflation and a stable rand. Key domestic data bolstered the case for a rate cut, as recent CPI figures revealed subdued price pressures, with rental and owner’s equivalent rent inflation remaining below forecasts. Furthermore, lower-than-expected electricity price increases and a forecast petrol price cut had further improved inflation dynamics.
Market uncertainty grows
In a difficult global environment, Kganyago said it is vital to sustain domestic reforms that boost growth, while preserving macroeconomic stability. Hoewver, Landsdowne Property Group says the South African Reserve Bank’s hawkish stance on interest rates, rising living costs and the upcoming VAT hike could put the brakes on positive momentum in the residential property market.
Jonathan Kohler, founder and chief executive officer of Landsdowne commented: “In an environment of rising living costs, affordability remains a major factor. The MPC’s decision to hold interest rates and concerns over economic growth will likely impact investor sentiment in the short term, as buyers adopt a wait-and-see approach."
Kohler added that potential buyers in certain market segments may opt to continue to rent, due to the added certainty provided by a fixed-cost lease.
"Upcoming changes to transfer duties could, however, stimulate buying activity in the more affordable segments of the property market. While transfer duties have risen by about 10%, those purchasing properties valued up to R1.210m will be exempt from paying transfer duty, starting from 1 April 2025. This marks an increase from the previous threshold of R1.1 m.
“This adjustment marks a significant and welcome shift for the property market, especially in the secondary sector. By boosting affordability in the lower- to middle-income brackets, we foresee heightened interest from first-time buyers and upward momentum across various property segments. This move has the potential to drive market activity and benefit both buyers and sellers.
“Additionally, while the higher-end property market faces increased transfer duties, the impact is expected to be minimal, as buyers in this segment typically have greater financial flexibility and are unlikely to be deterred by the adjustment,” added Kohler.
Despite concerns over economic growth, investor confidence remains buoyant, with the Absa Homeowner Sentiment Index for the fourth quarter of 2024 showing that 85% of investors are optimistic about expanding their portfolios - the highest level of investor confidence since 2016.
“Savvy investors will want to lock in value now. Gauteng in particular offers exceptional value for money, as house prices have remained stagnant for almost a decade,” he said.
The 2025Q1 GDP projection is 0.4% (q/q, seasonally adjusted), while 2025Q2 is 0.5%. Growth for the current calendar year has been marked down slightly, from 1.8% to 1.7%.
The MPC is expected to resume its rate-cutting cycle in May, potentially reducing the repo rate to 7.25% and maintaining it at that level for the remainder of the year.
We submit and automate press releases distribution for a range of clients. Our platform brings in automation to 5 social media platforms with engaging hashtags. Our new platform The Pulse, allows premium PR Agencies to have access to our newsletter subscribers.
Latest from
- Seven Reasons Smart Consumers Prefer Brands That Educate Rather Than Push Products or Hard-Sell
- Youth in Oil and Gas Summit Sparks Call for Pragmatic Leadership to Drive Skills and Opportunity in Namibia
- African Energy Chamber Advocates for Youth Inclusion as Pillar of Namibia’s Oil and Gas Strategy
- Shark Exhibition Showcases Innovative Solutions to Protect Both Marine Life and Human Safety in SA Waters
- Domain Parking Demystified A Strategic Tool for Brand Protection and Future Online Growth
- Toyota South Africa and Kaizer Chiefs Turn Sponsorship Into Impact With Outreach to Ethelbert Centre
- Woolworths Becomes First SA Retailer to Offer Tailored Health Cover to Thousands of Employees
- Celebrating PR With Purpose A Tribute to Storytellers Who Place Humanity at the Heart of Influence
- Tired of the Grind? Why So Many South Africans Are Unhappy at Work and Looking for Something Better
- Megapro Appoints Marc Jury as CEO as Sports Marketing Veteran Prepares to Become Majority Shareholder
- Glencore-Merafe Resources Commits to Sustainable Impact With Handover of 11 Community Projects
- The Business Show Africa 2025 Promises Game-Changing Opportunities for Entrepreneurs and Startups
- Flow Launches Shoppable Audience Marketplace Giving Advertisers Instant Access to Premium First-Party Data
- CILTSA ESG Conference Unites Transport and Logistics Leaders to Accelerate Sustainable Industry Change
- South Africa Continues TO Engage The United States (US) Government ON The Reciprocal Tariffs
The Pulse Latest Articles
- Xlink: An Avant-garde, Purpose-driven Fintelco Driving Digital And Payments Interoperability On The African Continent (August 1, 2025)
- Success Is Just The Beginning For This South African Brand (July 31, 2025)
- Embassies Business Fair And Conference 2025 To Fast-track Africa’s Global Economic Integration (July 31, 2025)
- There Is A Small Business Funding Readiness Crisis In South Africa (July 30, 2025)
- Young Achievers Shine At The Top Of The Growthpoint Gems Class (July 30, 2025)