FAO Food Price Index Drops in October 2026 Amid Cereal Decline and Record Sugar Prices
The FAO Food Price Index, which tracks monthly changes in international prices of a basket of globally traded food commodities, averaged 133.9 points in October 2026, down 1.6 points from its revised September level.
Despite the monthly decline, the index was 5.9% higher than a year earlier but remained 16.4% below its peak in March 2022. Rising sugar prices and a marginal increase in vegetable oils partly offset declines across the other commodity groups.
Cereal prices fall
The cereal price index fell by 4.5% from September, with wheat prices declining after four consecutive months of increases. Subdued international demand and an improving production outlook, particularly in Argentina, contributed to the decline. Expectations of fewer restrictions on Black Sea exports also eased price pressure, although ongoing logistical disruptions limited the fall.
International maize prices eased after reaching a three-year high in September, pressured by harvest activity in the United States and expectations of ample supplies from major South American exporters.
Rice prices moved in the opposite direction, with the all rice price index rising by 1.6% in October. Harvest delays in some exporting countries, adverse weather and rising costs contributed to the increase.
Food prices diverge across commodities
The vegetable oil price index edged up by 0.3% from September, as higher soybean and sunflower oil prices more than offset lower rapeseed oil quotations. Soybean oil reached its highest level since late 2022, supported by firm biofuel demand and seasonally declining supplies from South America. Sunflower oil prices also recovered amid tight export availability in the Black Sea region.
The meat price index declined by 1.2% from September, although it remained slightly above its year-earlier level. Prices fell for pig, ovine and bovine meat, while poultry prices were broadly stable.
The dairy price index dropped by 1.1%, as lower international butter and cheese prices, reflecting ample supplies and subdued buying interest, outweighed further increases in milk powder prices.
In contrast, the sugar price index rose by 6.6% from September, marking its fourth consecutive monthly increase and reaching its highest level since December 2024. Prices were also 28.8% higher than a year earlier. Rainfall-related disruptions to sugarcane harvesting and crushing in Brazil's key Centre-South producing region, along with concerns about production prospects in India, the European Union and Thailand during the 2026/27 season, drove the increase.
Cereal output remains high
In its latest Cereal Supply and Demand Brief, FAO forecasts global cereal production will decline from the record level reached in 2025, but remain at its second-highest level on record at 2,999 million tonnes in 2026.
Production is expected to fall across all major cereal groups, with the largest decline forecast for wheat. Coarse grain production is expected to decrease only marginally, while rice production is forecast to fall by 2.5% to 552 million tonnes. This would be the first contraction in four seasons, largely reflecting poor producer margins and adverse weather conditions associated with El Niño.
Global cereal utilisation in 2026/27 is forecast to increase by 0.2% to 2,971 million tonnes. Food use of wheat and rice is expected to rise by 0.8% and 1% respectively, slightly below the pace of global population growth.
Cereal stocks are forecast to increase by 17.2 million tonnes, or 1.8%, by the close of seasons in 2027. Higher wheat inventories in Russia and Ukraine, where export disruptions are contributing to an accumulation of supplies, account for much of the increase. The global cereal stocks-to-use ratio is forecast at 32.4%, slightly above the previous season.
World cereal trade in 2026/27 is forecast to contract by 3.3% to 507.7 million tonnes. An 8.6% decline in wheat trade is the main driver, with shipments from all major exporters expected to fall amid supply and logistical constraints.
41 countries need food assistance
FAO's November 2026 edition of its Crop Prospects and Food Situation report estimates that 41 countries and territories continue to require external assistance for food, including 31 in Africa.
Aggregate cereal production among Low-Income Food-Deficit Countries (LIFDCs) is forecast at approximately 126.5 million tonnes in 2026, about 2% above both the 2025 level and the five-year average. The increase largely reflects an anticipated recovery in Asia, particularly Near East Asia, while production among African LIFDCs is expected to remain close to average.
Persistent conflict and insecurity remain the main drivers of severe acute food insecurity, while El Niño-related weather shocks are worsening conditions in several subregions. Production impacts are expected to remain severe into 2027, potentially aggravating food insecurity further.