Data, Not Emotion - How SA Investors Can Navigate Market Volatility

As global markets fluctuate, many South African investors are making financial decisions based on headlines rather than hard data — a pattern that history shows can negatively affect long-term investment returns.

Recent geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly the ongoing conflict involving the United States, Israel, and Iran, have contributed to rising global oil prices and increased market uncertainty. Brent crude has recently traded above $107 per barrel, reflecting growing pressure in global energy markets.

At the same time, South Africa is experiencing domestic economic pressures, including rising fuel costs and a weaker rand, currently trading around R16.8 to the US dollar. These factors are compounding cost pressures for households and businesses, while analysts warn that the combination could push inflation higher and influence interest-rate decisions closely monitored by the South African Reserve Bank (SARB).

Adding further strain, the 2026 National Budget confirmed increases in fuel levies and carbon taxes, which came into effect on 1 April 2026. When combined with elevated global oil prices driven by geopolitical tensions, these policy changes are expected to feed directly into higher fuel prices at the pump.

Fuel Costs And The Agriculture Sector

The impact of rising fuel prices extends well beyond motorists. For South Africa’s agriculture sector, the timing is particularly significant as farmers enter a peak diesel-use period while preparing for harvesting activities.

Fuel plays a critical role in agricultural production. Diesel accounts for approximately 11–13% of total production costs for grain and oilseed farmers, while the country’s agricultural logistics remain heavily road-dependent.

Estimates suggest that roughly 75% of maize, wheat, and oilseeds are transported by truck from farms to markets, meaning higher fuel costs can quickly ripple through the entire agricultural supply chain.

“Sustained fuel price increases don’t just hit motorists — they also raise the cost of running tractors, harvesters, and logistics fleets, ultimately driving higher food prices for consumers,” says Pedri Reyneke, CEO and Fund Manager at Findotec.

Investor Behaviour And Market Volatility

Periods of economic and geopolitical uncertainty often trigger heightened market volatility, which can influence how investors respond to new information.

“Many investors react to news faster than economic realities unfold. Knee-jerk decisions during volatile periods often erode long-term returns,” Reyneke explains.

Research in behavioural finance consistently shows that many investors underperform market benchmarks because decisions are driven by emotion rather than disciplined strategy. A common pattern involves selling assets during downturns and missing the subsequent market recoveries.

According to Reyneke, the challenge lies in the complexity of modern markets.

“Markets are complex systems influenced by thousands of variables, from economic data and global politics to currency movements and commodity prices. Attempting to predict outcomes based on sentiment or headlines is extremely difficult.”

“A far more reliable approach is to focus on evidence and adapt as conditions change.”

Investor Takeaways

The current combination of global geopolitical tension, rising energy costs, and domestic economic pressures highlights a key reality for investors: volatility is a permanent feature of financial markets.

Rather than trying to avoid volatility altogether, financial strategies should be structured to withstand it.

“South African investors can mitigate currency and inflation impacts by relying on strategies built from continuous, adaptive analysis — not speculation. Science, math, and disciplined monitoring should guide investment decisions, not sentiment,” concludes Reyneke.

Findotec is a South African investment firm that combines data-driven analysis with behavioural insights to guide long-term investing.

Each portfolio is constructed using rigorous screening, strategic fund selection, diversified asset allocation, and ongoing oversight, ensuring that investment strategies remain evidence-based and adaptable to changing market conditions.

By focusing on consistent performance rather than market sentiment, Findotec aims to help investors navigate volatility with greater precision and confidence.