Causing nearly a third of $210bn global economic losses

Warmest year on record a notable contributor to elevated weather-related losses

Johannesburg, 19 January 2017 – Impact Forecasting, Aon Benfield’s catastrophe model development team has launched its 2016 Annual Global Climate and Catastrophe Report, which evaluates the impact of the natural disaster events that occurred worldwide during the last 12 months to promote awareness and enhance resilience. Aon Benfield is the global reinsurance intermediary and capital advisor of Aon plc (NYSE:AON).

The report reveals that there were 315 natural catastrophe events in 2016 that generated economic losses of USD210 billion. For historical context, 2016 was the seventh highest year on record with the combined economic loss exceeding the USD200 billion threshold for the first time since 2013.

The top three perils—flooding, earthquake and severe weather—combined for 70 percent of all economic losses in 2016. While at least 72% of catastrophe losses occurred outside of the United States, it still accounted for 56% of global insured losses.

Overall, just 26% (USD54 billion) of overall economic losses were covered by insurance in 2016 due to a higher percentage of damage occurring in areas with a lower insurance penetration. However, the public and private insurance industry losses were 7% above the 16-year average and the highest insured loss total since 2012. 2016 marked the end of a four-year downward trend since the record year in 2011.

There were at least 34 natural disasters that caused more than USD1.0 billion in economic damage around the globe, though only 11 of those events had insurable losses reaching the same threshold. The vast majority of the billion-dollar events (30) were weather-related, and only nine had insured losses at or above USD1.0 billion.

Steve Bowen, Impact Forecasting director and meteorologist, said: “After a decline in catastrophe losses during the previous four years, 2016 marked a bit of an uptick in natural peril costs to the global economy. When recognising that we have seen a nominal increase in both annual and individual weather disaster costs in recent decades, we recognise that factors such as climate change, more intense weather events, greater coastal exposures and population migration shifts are all contributors to the growing trend.”

“With these parameters in place, and forecasts continuing to signal greater risk and vulnerability, it is anticipated that weather-related catastrophe losses will further increase in the coming years. The data and analysis in this report will help businesses, communities, governments and the re/insurance industry to better prepare and help mitigate the growing risks of these disasters,” Bowen adds.

Pieter Visser, a Catastrophe Analyst at Aon South Africa, adds: “There were three substantial catastrophe events that impacted the reinsurance catastrophe market in South Africa.  Two of these events were accompanied by heavy rainfall and flood events, which is noteworthy as the country has not witnessed many flood related losses in the last decade,” he explains.  “The third event is the drought which is estimated to be the worst catastrophe that South Africa has experienced in decades, highlighting a distinct lack of appropriate insurance solutions that are specific to this peril,” Visser adds.

Notable global events driving economic and insured losses in 2016 included:

• A series of April earthquakes in Japan was the costliest event both economically (USD38 billion in losses) and for the insurance industry (USD5.5 billion)
• Six of the top 10 costliest insured loss events occurred in the United States, including Hurricane Matthew and multiple severe weather outbreaks
• For the fourth consecutive year, flooding was costliest overall peril at USD62 billion (30% of the total). The most significant flood events were along the Yangtze River basin in China (USD28 billion in damage) and in the US state of Louisiana (USD10-15 billion in losses).
• A notable entry into the top five insured losses was for a ‘secondary’ peril – wildfire – in Fort McMurray, Canada that cost the industry nearly USD3.0 billion.
• The United States experienced 14 individual billion-dollar economic loss events and Asia-Pacific experienced 13 such events – compared to four in EMEA and three in the Americas.

Read the full 2016 Annual Global Climate and Catastrophe Report: http://aon.io/2joGyPl

Watch Steve Bowen’s short film on the key findings of the report, shot in St Augustine, Florida which was impacted by Hurricane Matthew: https://youtu.be/-sz2ASRi8yQ

Access current and historical natural catastrophe data, plus event analysis, on Impact Forecasting’s Catastrophe Insight website. 

Top 10 Global Economic Loss Events