iTOO Special Risks Highlights Insurance Role In Driving Economic Resilience

Across each of these forces runs a common thread — the insurance industry’s growing role in managing risk, enabling innovation and supporting economic resilience.

Trend indicators consistently highlight AI adoption and political volatility as dominant influences on insurers’ strategies, alongside expanding exposure linked to green infrastructure and digital transformation.

Together, these developments are reshaping underwriting models, capital allocation and risk assessment, positioning insurance at the centre of some of the most significant global transitions of the decade.

Justin Naylor, chief executive officer of iTOO Special Risks, says this interconnectedness is more visible than ever, as the forces shaping global news cycles are also the same ones reshaping risk, underwriting and the specialist insurance landscape.

As South Africa and the world enter a year defined by rapid technological change, geopolitical volatility and accelerating green investment, Naylor outlines the key insurance trends that will shape 2026.

AI drives enterprise transformation

Naylor identifies the mainstream adoption of artificial intelligence (AI) across South African industries as the most significant shift shaping 2026.

“AI has moved from pilot projects to full enterprise-wide adoption. I’m seeing it everywhere – law firms using AI to support decisions, doctors scanning skin lesions, even brokers comparing policy wordings,” he says.

“AI is a way to put insurance experts on steroids. It gives them access to far more information in one place, enhancing real-world expertise. We are deploying AI agents to speed up decision-making, automate routine tasks and improve broker service. AI frees up time, meaning more time building relationships with brokers, which is the heart of our business.”

But increased adoption also brings new risks. “We’re going to see more unsupervised AI use, and with that comes the risk of unintended outcomes. There’s real opportunity for AI guarantees and liability cover when AI decisions cause financial loss,” he notes.

Naylor estimates that AI spend in South Africa is already around $3bn, highlighting the scale of the emerging market.

Culture creativity human connections

Despite the AI boom, Naylor believes 2026 will also bring a renewed desire for human connection, because people are plugged in 24/7 across WhatsApp, email, social media, ChatGPT and others, so there is a clear need to disconnect and focus on real relationships.

“AI cannot replace genuine creativity or human insight, but rather gives you standard answers. Humans still come up with truly creative ideas. That’s why one of our values is Maverick Progress,” he says.

This theme will be central at the iTOO Unconference on Thursday 5 March, 2026 where 500 brokers and partners will gather for face‑to‑face learning with iTOO experts.

Geopolitics fuels cyber coverage

Global political tensions, from shifting US alliances to Brics dynamics, are creating heightened uncertainty, says Naylor, explaining that geopolitics is driving a lot of risk right now, with cyberattacks increasingly being used as political weapons.

Cyber remains one of the fastest‑growing business lines for insurers, and 2026 will see the launch of Active Watch, a 24/7 cyber‑monitoring service for top corporate clients.

“Political violence and terrorism cover is also in high demand. We are seeing more volatility around elections, protests and riots, and these events can cause major property damage and business interruption,” he notes.

Kidnap and ransom insurance is rapidly becoming a high priority for some, as South Africa recorded over 17,000 kidnappings last year. Tough economies and political frustration fuel this trend.

Green transition accelerates

South Africa’s shift from coal to renewables is reshaping the insurance landscape. “Renewable energy is our biggest and fastest‑growing business. Wind and solar are booming, and we’re seeing major growth across Southern and East Africa,” says Naylor.

Insurers are tracking new opportunities in grid‑connection and transmission line projects, energy exchanges, specialist energy guarantees and carbon credits (both voluntary and compulsory markets).

Naylor notes that more than 300 consecutive load‑shedding‑free days are a real sign of progress in renewable adoption, and the insurance industry is playing a big role in enabling that transition.

A soft global market

The global insurance industry remains in a soft market cycle. “Insurers have strong balance sheets, and we’ve seen pricing soften over the past year. It’s flattening now, but still slightly cheaper,” says Naylor.

He notes it would take a $200 bn global event to push the cycle back into rising prices, but warns, “Pricing is not going down for everyone. If you’re a bad risk or not managing your exposures, you may still see increases.”

Naylor’s guidance to clients is clear: it is time to invest in technology, work closely with brokers to actively manage new risks and stick with the experts in a soft pricing environment.