Warc’s 2026 Toolkit Reveals Declining Marketer Confidence Amid Global Disruption And Shifting Trends

From the vanishing middle market and the creator investment gamble to the great escape, AI-driven zero-click journeys and shifting consumer milestones, the report provides marketers with essential insights to transform these disruptions into opportunities for growth.

The trend identification for the report, now in its 15th year, is based on Warc’s proprietary GEISTE methodology which focuses on the broad macro trends across government, economy, industry, society, technology, and environment. It further incorporates a global survey of 1,000 plus marketing executives, one-to-one interviews with leading marketers worldwide, and analysis and insight from Warc’s global team of experts.

Aditya Kishore, Insight Director, Warc, says: "Going into 2026, the only certainty is that there will be uncertainty. Unpredictable tariffs, geopolitical threats, and economic instability are impacting consumer spending, lifestyles and ambitions. Our survey found marketer optimism is down 11 points from last year, with 54% of marketers saying they expect things to be better next year, versus 65% surveyed in 2024. But understanding consumer shifts and how to adapt quickly to cater to them could create new opportunities for brands in 2026.

“Our Marketer’s Toolkit 2026 is a map for making sense of a world that’s rapidly and constantly changing. It’s designed to bring clarity in chaos and help marketers understand what’s really happening to people, brands, and technology – and what to do about it before falling behind.”

The five trends outlined in Warc’s Marketer’s Toolkit 2026 that will shape global marketing strategies next year are:

The vanishing middle

Three out of four marketers (73%) agree that the term ‘middle-class’ is becoming meaningless, with wide variances seen across wealth, income and attitudes towards spending.

Offering brands both scale and margin, the middle market has long been the bedrock of category growth. But now it’s rapidly disappearing driven by sluggish incomes, surging lifestyle costs and plunging job security. The middle class increasingly bifurcates its spending towards the high- or low-end of the market.

Marketers are advised to: (1) Help customers navigate ‘affordability tension’ by addressing gaps between what consumers still want, and what they can still afford. (2) Build emotional connections with consumers to help sustain demand even in challenging categories, tapping into cultural and ideological values. (3) Identify cohort-orientated strategies to drive growth, from affluent boomers to younger audiences, adapting to their purchase priorities.

The creator gamble

Three in five marketers (61%) plan to increase their investment in influencer/creator marketing in 2026 but creator ROI suffers from high levels of volatility.

Brands see influencers and creators as vital in helping them to achieve their goals, but they face challenges in demonstrating their effectiveness within their marketing investments. CreativeX analysis shows 45% of creator ad spend on Meta is wasted through poor creative practices, while Kantar research finds just 27% of creator content effectively links to sponsoring brands. The tension between reach, control and authenticity is likely to come to a head in 2026.

Marketers are advised to: (1) Ensure the marketing organisation is aligned on creator goals such as KPIs and measurement techniques. (2) Paid media formats, creative best practice, and media planning are vital to amplify creator success. (3) Brands and creators should share insights on category intelligence and audience knowledge to benefit business outcomes and engagement.

The great escape

For enhanced experiences, most marketers are pursuing both digital channels (78%) and in-person events (74%).

In a world weighed down by polycrisis – declining life satisfaction, increased mental health and burnout – consumers are seeking an escape. Research shows that in high-anxiety periods, advertising that emphasizes unity, stability or positivity performs significantly better. By creating emotionally immersive experiences, escapist marketing helps brands become rare sanctuaries of respite. McCann Worldgroup projects the “Escape Economy” will reach $13.9trn by 2028.

Marketers are advised to: (1) Counter enshittification by connecting with consumers in digital communities and in real life (IRL) environments they find invigorating through partnerships, by sponsoring rituals and co-creating activations that add value. (2) Invest in experiences not just exposure, by creating opportunities for consumers to engage and interact with the brand rather than simply maximising impressions. (3) Use immersive experiences that foster emotional connections and create lasting brand memories.

The zero-click customer journey

Only one in nine marketers (11%) is “not particularly worried” about the impact of AI on search; most are working on AI search strategies, with 24% shifting from SEO (Search engine optimisation) to GEO (Generative engine optimisation).

Artificial intelligence (AI) is gaining influence across the customer journey, from search to agentic commerce. Importantly, people and AI engines will both still rely on brand cues to make choices.

Marketers are advised to: (1) Focus AI tests on understanding measurable and clearly defined effects on customer journeys. (2) Experiment with AI but continue to invest in what is proven to work as customer uptake is inconsistent and results are unproven. (3) Draw on lessons from past tech disruptions to ground thinking and prepare for the AI future.

The reset of consumer milestones

Nearly six in ten marketers (59%) said segmentation schemes based on age, income, social class and family structures are not really effective anymore, while 57% said traditional family structures and gender roles have changed dramatically, and 58% are seeing more childless families.

Household units are fundamentally changing as consumers rethink traditional life milestones, from having children to the nature of retirement. This phenomenon is altering established spending triggers, putting the onus on brands to re-evaluate typical category entry points for their customers.

Marketers are advised to: (1) Challenge established assumptions and ideas on consumer spending milestones using behavioural economics as a guide. (2) Build flexibility into brand platforms to be relevant to consumers entering a brand category at new moments and in response to different spend triggers. (3) Become the voice of the changing customer within their business by unearthing new usage occasions and category entry points through focused research.

A complimentary sample of The Marketer’s Toolkit 2026 is available to read here.