Global Aviation Improves But African Airline Profitability Struggles As Iata Cites Structural Market Pressures

Global airlines are set to post another year of solid profits despite a fast-changing operating environment, but African carriers continue to lag due to high costs, fragmented markets and ageing fleets.

In its latest financial outlook for 2026, IATA says the global aviation environment is gradually stabilising. International fuel costs are expected to decline to $252 billion (R4,26 trillion) in 2026 from $253 billion in 2025 (R4,28 trillion). Additionally, IATA anticipates that supply chain challenges and aircraft delivery may begin to improve.

However, the industry will still contend with infrastructure constraints as well as geopolitical tensions, which interfere with global navigation satellite systems, forcing airlines to reroute around unsafe airspace.

International airlines

International airlines are expected to achieve a nett profit of US$41 billion (R693 billion) in 2026 at a nett profit margin of 3,9%. This exceeds the $39,5 billion (R667 billion) and maintains the same profit margin as 2025.

Average nett profit per passenger is forecast at $7,90 (R134), representing a decrease in the predicted $8,50 (R144) profit per passenger in 2024.

Passenger demand (RPKs) is anticipated to grow by 4,4% in 2026, which is significantly less than the 8% increase that was predicted for the end of 2025.

“It’s extremely welcome news considering the headwinds that the industry faces – rising costs from bottlenecks in the aerospace supply chain, geopolitical conflict, sluggish global trade, and growing regulatory burdens among them. Airlines have successfully built shock-absorbing resilience into their businesses that is delivering stable profitability,” said Willie Walsh, IATA Director General.

African airlines

African airlines are expected to post a nett profit of $200 million (R3,4 billion) in 2026, with a nett profit margin of 1%. While the nett profit remains the same prediction for 2025, the nett profit has dropped slightly from 1,1%.

Profit per passenger is also expected to fall by $0,1 (R1,70), reaching a $1,3 (R22) profit per passenger.