Why South Africans Are Staying Away From The Polls

In her doctoral study, Dr Modise examined the influence of South Africa's electoral system and electoral laws on voter turnout between 1999 and 2019. Using existing literature, Human Sciences Research Council Voter Participation Survey data and Afrobarometer survey data, she found that decreasing participation is the result of a combination of institutional and attitudinal factors.

The study addresses a gap in South African electoral research, which has traditionally focused on socio-economic and demographic explanations for voter behaviour while paying limited attention to the role of electoral institutions such as electoral laws and electoral system.

"Our understanding of voter turnout cannot be limited to socio-economic factors alone," said Dr Modise. "Electoral institutions shape how citizens experience democracy and whether they believe participation in elections can influence political outcomes."

One-party dominance discourages voters

Dr Modise found that the structure of the party system has played a significant role. Proportional representation systems are often associated with higher voter turnout because they encourage multiparty competition, but the South African experience tells a different story. Prior to 2024, Although the country had over 500 registered political parties, the electoral system produced prolonged one-party dominance.

"In South Africa, the dominance of a single party has shaped voter perceptions and contributed to declining engagement in the electoral process,” Dr Modise said.

The study argues that one-party dominance weakened accountability and contributed to dissatisfaction with governance. As concerns about service delivery, unemployment, poverty and inequality persisted, levels of voter apathy and disillusionment increased.

Voters are not convinced voting can make a difference

Another key finding relates to voter efficacy – the belief that an individual's vote can make a difference. The research found evidence of declining voter efficacy during the period under review, accompanied by growing uncertainty among voters about the value of participating in elections.

"The research points to a relationship between institutions and attitudes," said Dr Modise. "When voters question whether their participation matters, turnout is likely to decline regardless of the opportunities available within the electoral system."

The study also examined electoral laws and found that certain legal mechanisms, including the voters' roll and provisions for special votes, played a direct role in supporting voter participation. Other legislative changes, however, had limited impact on turnout levels, such as reforms to party registration requirements, campaign finance regulations, and the administration of elections by the Independent Electoral Commission, which improved the management and transparency of elections but did not substantially increase voter turnout.

Dr Modise concludes that voter turnout in South Africa cannot be explained through a single lens. Instead, it reflects the interaction between electoral institutions and voter attitudes, offering a broader framework for understanding democratic participation in the country.