Oil War and the Cost of Living What Middle East Tensions Mean for Eastern and Southern Africa

Prof Jacques de JonghDr. Kwami Ossadzifo Wonyra

Titled “Oil, war and the cost of living: What the Middle East conflict means for Eastern and Southern African economies”, the webinar will bring together leading economic voices from NWU and ESAMI to unpack the transmission chain that runs from volatile oil prices and disrupted shipping routes through to the macro-economic pressures shaping the region, including growth outlooks, employment, inflation, and fiscal policy, and how these play out in supermarket shelves, taxi and matatu fares, and household budgets from Cape Town to Nairobi.

Why this conversation matters now

The conflict between Iran and the United States is no longer just a geopolitical headline. As tensions rise, ease, and rise again, the ripple effects are being felt far beyond the Middle East. Volatile oil prices, disrupted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea, and rattled global markets are feeding directly into the cost of living across Eastern and Southern Africa, moving fuel prices up and down with little warning, inflating food costs, and adding fresh pressure to already stretched regional currencies, including the rand, the Kenyan and Tanzanian shillings, the kwacha, and the pula.

It is not only the direction of these shocks that matters, but their unpredictability. Finance ministries, central banks, and businesses across the region are being forced to plan against a moving target, and that uncertainty itself is now part of the macroeconomic cost of the conflict

For most citizens of the region, the connection between a war thousands of kilometres away and the price of bread, electricity, and transport is invisible. This webinar will make that connection visible, moving from the Strait of Hormuz to the fuel pump, from oil price spikes to supermarket shelves and informal markets, and from port congestion at Mombasa and Durban through to the household budget.

This is not a foreign affairs discussion. It is a kitchen-table conversation about money, cost, and the global forces that African households are paying for whether they chose to or not.

Speakers

Dr. Kwami Ossadzifo Wonyra (Eastern and Southern African Management Institute) will set out the regional perspective, examining how volatility in global commodity markets is rippling through economies across Eastern and Southern Africa, with a comparative look at how different economies in the region are absorbing the shock.

Prof Jacques de Jongh (North-West University) will open the South African leg of the conversation with a focused analysis of how the global shock travels into the South African economy, through the rand, the basic fuel price, transport, and food inflation, and what households, businesses, and policymakers should realistically expect in the months ahead.

The session will be facilitated by a representative of the NWU CRMS dept.

Event details

Date: Wednesday, 8 July 2026Time: 3-4pm SAST / 4-5pm EATPlatform: Online (Microsoft Teams)Duration: 1 hour (20 minutes per expert presentation, followed by a 20-minute Q&A)Webinar link: Oil, War and the Cost of Living: Implications of The Middle East Conflict on the Eastern and Southern African Economies

About North-West University

The North-West University (NWU) is one of South Africa's largest residential and distance-learning universities, with campuses in Potchefstroom, Mahikeng and Vanderbijlpark. The University has a strong tradition of producing applied, policy-relevant research across the economic, social and natural sciences, and actively engages with policymakers, industry and the public to contribute evidence-based insights on issues of national and regional importance.

About ESAMI

The Eastern and Southern African Management Institute (ESAMI) is a pan-African regional management development centre owned by ten member states across Eastern and Southern Africa, and headquartered in Arusha, Tanzania. ESAMI provides executive education, consultancy, and applied research that supports leadership, institutional development, and economic policy across the region.

Titled “Oil, war and the cost of living: What the Middle East conflict means for Eastern and Southern African economies”, the webinar will bring together leading economic voices from NWU and ESAMI to unpack the transmission chain that runs from volatile oil prices and disrupted shipping routes through to the macro-economic pressures shaping the region, including growth outlooks, employment, inflation, and fiscal policy, and how these play out in supermarket shelves, taxi and matatu fares, and household budgets from Cape Town to Nairobi.

Why this conversation matters now

The conflict between Iran and the United States is no longer just a geopolitical headline. As tensions rise, ease, and rise again, the ripple effects are being felt far beyond the Middle East. Volatile oil prices, disrupted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea, and rattled global markets are feeding directly into the cost of living across Eastern and Southern Africa, moving fuel prices up and down with little warning, inflating food costs, and adding fresh pressure to already stretched regional currencies, including the rand, the Kenyan and Tanzanian shillings, the kwacha, and the pula.

It is not only the direction of these shocks that matters, but their unpredictability. Finance ministries, central banks, and businesses across the region are being forced to plan against a moving target, and that uncertainty itself is now part of the macroeconomic cost of the conflict

For most citizens of the region, the connection between a war thousands of kilometres away and the price of bread, electricity, and transport is invisible. This webinar will make that connection visible, moving from the Strait of Hormuz to the fuel pump, from oil price spikes to supermarket shelves and informal markets, and from port congestion at Mombasa and Durban through to the household budget.

This is not a foreign affairs discussion. It is a kitchen-table conversation about money, cost, and the global forces that African households are paying for whether they chose to or not.

Speakers

Dr. Kwami Ossadzifo Wonyra (Eastern and Southern African Management Institute) will set out the regional perspective, examining how volatility in global commodity markets is rippling through economies across Eastern and Southern Africa, with a comparative look at how different economies in the region are absorbing the shock.

Prof Jacques de Jongh (North-West University) will open the South African leg of the conversation with a focused analysis of how the global shock travels into the South African economy, through the rand, the basic fuel price, transport, and food inflation, and what households, businesses, and policymakers should realistically expect in the months ahead.

The session will be facilitated by a representative of the NWU CRMS dept.

Event details

Date: Wednesday, 8 July 2026Time: 3-4pm SAST / 4-5pm EATPlatform: Online (Microsoft Teams)Duration: 1 hour (20 minutes per expert presentation, followed by a 20-minute Q&A)Webinar link: Oil, War and the Cost of Living: Implications of The Middle East Conflict on the Eastern and Southern African Economies

About North-West University

The North-West University (NWU) is one of South Africa's largest residential and distance-learning universities, with campuses in Potchefstroom, Mahikeng and Vanderbijlpark. The University has a strong tradition of producing applied, policy-relevant research across the economic, social and natural sciences, and actively engages with policymakers, industry and the public to contribute evidence-based insights on issues of national and regional importance.

About ESAMI

The Eastern and Southern African Management Institute (ESAMI) is a pan-African regional management development centre owned by ten member states across Eastern and Southern Africa, and headquartered in Arusha, Tanzania. ESAMI provides executive education, consultancy, and applied research that supports leadership, institutional development, and economic policy across the region.

This webinar is co-presented by Eastern and Southern African Management Institute