Mining Sector Shows Divergence As Steel Linked Commodities Outperform In 2025

According to the Minerals Council South Africa (MCSA), the sector’s resilience reflects structural shifts in demand and production, with implications for competitiveness, energy use, and policy.

Divergence

In 2025, South Africa’s mining sector displayed a marked divergence — steel‑linked commodities (iron ore, manganese, chromium) and transition minerals strengthened due to record Chinese steel exports, as diamonds and building materials experienced only modest improvements in the luxury and construction segments.

At the same time, PGMs, gold, and coal contracted, underscoring structural and geological constraints as well as demand shifts.

The standout performance was in “other metallic minerals” (+17.2%), signalling diversification and new growth streams worth close monitoring.

Production performance

Let’s take a look at the annual (2025 vs 2024) performance of each of the key commodities:

• Iron ore (+3.0%), manganese (+5.0%), chromium ore (+3.9%): These commodities are strongly linked to steel production in China. Chinese steel exports reached a record 119 million tonnes in 2025, a 7.2% increase from the previous year.
• Diamonds (+3.9%): Production increase in diamonds is a sign of a slight recovery in the luxury market. In 2025, demand for natural diamond-based products grew by 2.1% in the USA, the world’s principal natural diamond market. This increase in demand is compared to the global peak of Covid in 2021.
• Building materials (+2.9): This indicates a construction-linked recovery.
• Other metallic minerals (+17.2%): This exceptional expansion in production could suggest diversification and new production streams in the sector. It is a sub-sector that’s worth monitoring. Included in this group are silver, cobalt, lead, titanium and zinc.

Compared to 2024, in 2025 production volumes in the following commodities contracted:

• PGMs (-4.4%): Two factors accounted for the contraction in production. First, until around May 2025, prices were subdued, which negatively affected production. Second, the rains in October right through to December also affected production.
• Gold (-1.7%): Despite gold being a safe-haven and prices reaching a record high, gold production in South Africa is on the decline. This is more of a geological phenomenon.
• Coal (-0.7%): A near-flat production performance, reflecting a modest reduction in domestic coal demand, including Eskom, as export volumes were marginally higher in 2025 (71.9 million tonnes) compared to 2024 (70.9 million tonnes).

Despite global volatility, 2025 sales nearly returned to 2022 levels. signalling resilience in world demand.

Sales

The growth in sales in 2025 compared to 2024 was on account of the following commodities:

• Gold (+29.7% to R185bn)
• PGMs (+19.5% to R206.7 bn)
• Chromium ore (+3.0% to R65.4bn)
• Copper (+9.4% to R7.7bn)

Declines in mineral sales earnings were recorded in the following commodities:

• Coal (-3.1% to R194.3bn)
• Iron ore (-8.7% to R83.5 bn)
• Manganese (-1.8% to R49.1bn)
• Nickel (-8.9% to R8.9bn)

Commodity price performance in 2025 compared to 2024 displayed strong growth in precious metals:

• Gold: +44.1% (to $3,440)
• Platinum: +34% (to $1,279.8)
• Palladium: +17% (to $1,150.4)
• Rhodium: +35.3% (to $6,258.6)
• Coal prices declined by 14.9%% to $90.4/tonne
• Iron ore also declined by 6.6% to $103.7/tonne.