South Africa Electricity Generation Falls 8.7% Year on Year in April 2026

Eskom's electricity production in April 2026 was 14.7% below the pre-Covid (2019) average, highlighting the extent of the structural decline in demand and supply. Image credit: Gerhard Roux , CC BY-SA 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons

Stats SA’s latest data for April indicates a continued decline in electricity production in South Africa.

Downward spiral

Seasonally adjusted real electricity generation fell by 8.7% year-on-year (y-o-y) in April 2026, marking a sustained contraction in annual terms over recent months.

On a month-on-month (m-o-m) basis, production declined by a further 1.7%.

The key takeaway is that, despite the absence of loadshedding, both electricity production and consumption remain on a downward trend.

Electricity production in April 2026 was 14.7% below the pre-Covid (2019) average, highlighting the extent of the structural decline in demand and supply.

January to April (year-to-April), electricity production was 6.4% lower compared to the same period last year.

For the 12 months to April 2026 (May 2025 to April 2026), production was 4.7% lower compared to the preceding 12-month period.

“The sustained year-on-year contraction, coupled with output levels well below pre-Covid benchmarks, suggests that weak underlying demand, likely reflecting subdued industrial activity in the economy, remains a defining feature of the electricity landscape.

“This will put pressure on Eskom’s revenue and does not support single-digit tariff increases in future,” says Lourens.

The promise of smelters

But all is not lost, as Lourens points out, with early signs that industrial demand could begin to recover.

Ferrochrome smelters operated by Glencore-Merafe and Samancor Chrome could return, depending on approval of changes to their negotiated pricing agreements (NPAs), which could increase electricity consumption.

“Importantly, while the system remains relatively tight, Eskom has indicated that it retains approximately 2,000 MW of capacity in cold storage that can be brought back online with relative ease should demand increase.

“This available buffer suggests that additional load from the smelters can be accommodated without materially compromising system stability,” says the economist.

Market reform

The power utility is also opening itself up to a new electricity market framework, and the scale of policy reform currently underway is notable.

This is occurring alongside mounting pressure on existing industrial customers, many of whom face significant financial strain and may be unable to continue operating without a relief in electricity tariffs.

Against this backdrop, several key policy and regulatory processes are currently progressing through the National Energy Regulator of South Africa’s (Nersa) public consultation framework.

These processes reflect a comprehensive restructuring of both market design and pricing arrangements, with significant implications for generators, traders, and large industrial consumers.

Lourens says, “The scale and pace of policy reform signal a fundamental transition in South Africa’s electricity market.

“While these reforms are necessary to enable a more competitive and efficient system, they introduce a period of uncertainty for market participants.

“For energy-intensive users in particular, rising electricity costs and evolving pricing frameworks continue to pose a material risk to operational viability.

“In this context, the key challenge is to balance reform with affordability and competitiveness.

“Sustaining system stability while ensuring that industrial users remain viable will be critical to supporting broader economic recovery and growth.”